University of California, San Francisco

Trials by start year as sponsor or collaborator

Trials started per year with this organization as sponsor or collaborator, 1990 onward. The series also counts trials where the organization is a collaborator; the lead-sponsor trial count does not.

2026 is partial: 148 registered with a 2026 start date. The hollow diamonds on the dashed line are a forecast of the full-year count, planned starts included: about 150 in 2026 and about 150 in 2027, the average of the 24 months through September, counted as registered and carried forward. The columns, the lighter one included, count trials registered so far with a start date in the year, planned starts included; the forecast looks ahead to the count for the whole year, so it is not the same measure. This method has not been backtested on organizations. In backtests on conditions with as many trial starts a year as this organization (100 to 500), forecasts made part-way through the year were typically off by about 13 percent and ran about 12 percent low against the count later registered; forecasts made before the year began were off by about 19 percent and ran about 17 percent low against the count later registered, and had about the same error as repeating last year's count. These figures rest on a few years of history (target years from 2018 to 2025, varying by figure), place each condition as it is mapped today rather than as it was then, and score against a count for the newest year that was still being revised. Only condition series were scored. 12 trials are registered to start in 2027 or later.