UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH

Trials by start year as sponsor or collaborator

Trials started per year with this organization as sponsor or collaborator, 1990 onward. The series also counts trials where the organization is a collaborator; the lead-sponsor trial count does not.

2026 is partial: 30 registered with a 2026 start date. The hollow diamonds on the dashed line are a forecast of the full-year count, planned starts included: about 30 in 2026 and about 30 in 2027, the average of the 24 months through September, counted as registered and carried forward. The columns, the lighter one included, count trials registered so far with a start date in the year, planned starts included; the forecast looks ahead to the count for the whole year, so it is not the same measure. This method has not been backtested on organizations. In backtests on conditions with as many trial starts a year as this organization (20 to 100), forecasts made part-way through the year were typically off by about 18 percent and ran about 14 percent low against the count later registered; forecasts made before the year began were off by about 26 percent and ran about 20 percent low against the count later registered. These figures rest on a few years of history (target years from 2018 to 2025, varying by figure), place each condition as it is mapped today rather than as it was then, and score against a count for the newest year that was still being revised. Only condition series were scored. The 2026 forecast is below the 30 already registered with a 2026 start date: at the cutoff, 8 trials were already registered to start in October to December, more than the method's monthly average allows for, and the method does not use those planned starts.